The Pond

"The Pond" chart illustrates the concept of a market... where properties are coming on the market and go off the market at specific rates.

In the past 24 months, an average of 1.6 new property/month came on the market.

They are being sold, essentially, at the same rate of 1.3 each month.

With a total inventory of 6 units, this gives us a monthly supply of 4.6 months.  In other words, if no new properties came on the market, everything would sell in 4.6 months.  6 months of supply is considered a "Balanced Market".  Anything less than 6 months, is considered a "Seller's Market".

Given these rates of ingress and egress, each month a seller has an 21.5% chance of selling.

 

In the past 6 months, an average of 1.7 new properties/month came on the market.

They were being sold at a higher rate each month of 1.2.

With a total inventory of 6 units, this gives us a smaller monthly supply of 5.1 months.  

Therefore, each month a seller has an 19.4% chance of selling.

Over the past 2 years, the seller’s odds of selling have decreased 2.1%